Win Rate Calculator

This calculator estimates your chance of beating each member of the Final 6 in Yu-Gi-Oh! Forbidden Memories — Sebek, Neku, Heishin, Seto 3rd, DarkNite, and Nitemare — given the key cards in your deck. It is based on a community spreadsheet created by Exarion, built from hundreds of trial duels and refined over 18 months. The calculator uses a lookup table of 2,700+ deck configurations covering dragons, thunders, equips, Umis, Widespread Ruins, and Megamorphs, plus dozens of modifier layers for other important cards like MBD, Skull Knight, and Mountain.

Go through your deck card by card and increment the counter that matches each card's type. The status bar at the top shows your computed Dragon count, active Equip slots, and Dark Magics — these update automatically.

1. Little dragons (<1600 ATK), big dragons (1600+ ATK), and Thunder Dragons: enter your counts in the first three counters. Big dragons are weighted more heavily because they contribute to stronger fusions like Twin-Headed Thunder Dragon.

1. Thunders: enter your total number of Thunder monsters, including Thunder Dragons. If you run 2 Kaminari Attacks, count them as 3 Thunders — the game treats them as Thunder-type.
2. Umi, Widespread Ruin, and Megamorph: add your copies into their own counters. Widespread Ruin is exponentially more valuable with each extra copy — 3 is much stronger than 2.
3. Meteor B. Dragon, Skull Knight, and Dark Magician: MBD + Megamorph is the strongest combo for beating Blue-Eyes Ultimate Dragon. Skull Knight gets extra value when your equips are Dark Energy, Beast Fangs, or Bright Castle.
4. Zoa and Ushi Oni: these reduce dead hands and improve consistency. They work similarly to MBD, Skull Knight, and Dark Magician.
5. Mountain and Fields: put each Mountain into the Mountain counter. For Fields, count only Wastelands, Forests, and Sogens. Fields are less useful if you have Megamorph or MBD, but still worth keeping for the last four opponents.
6. Dragon Capture Jar, Acid Trap Hole, and Crush Card: DCJ is especially strong against Seto 3rd. Crush Card is particularly effective against DarkNite and Nitemare.
7. Dark Hole / Raigeki: toggle this on if your deck includes either card. Dark Hole is better against Seto 3rd and DarkNite; Raigeki is better against Heishin and Nitemare.
8. Equips: select up to six from the dropdowns. Each equip can be chosen at most three times. The more monsters you have, the more important equips are — and vice versa.

The six duelist percentages and the compound Final 6 probability update instantly as you change any value.

Each percentage is an estimated win probability against that duelist. The Final 6 compound is the product of all six — your chance of beating the entire gauntlet consecutively. Odds are based on extensive trial and error and are most accurate with commonly run decks. They are less accurate with extremely weak or extremely strong decks, or decks with unusual card distributions like 0 equips or 3 Crush Cards.

Seto 3rd has the lowest hard cap (93.9%) because Blue-Eyes Ultimate Dragon appears on turn 1 roughly 57% of the time. Without a way to beat BEUD — such as MBD + Megamorph or a 4800 ATK Twin-Headed Thunder Dragon — your win rate typically stays in the 20–30% range. With consistent BEUD counters, it climbs to 70–80%. DCJ becomes more valuable the better your deck is at making Gate Guardian beaters.

• Sebek: any deck that can semi-consistently make a 3300 ATK monster wins easily. Falling behind rarely results in a loss — he plays mostly harmless backrow and shields, he has no answer to Raigeki.
• Neku: the most straightforward duel. MBD and Skull Knight give the biggest boosts, followed by equips, then Umi and Mountain.
• Heishin: all about making Gate Guardian beaters (3800 ATK). Consistent 3300s have a marginal effect because there are few situations where they change the outcome. Widespread Ruin and Raigeki can get cheap wins.
• DarkNite: value comes from beating each of his three monster tiers — Cosmo Queen, Black Skull Dragon, and MBD. Widespread Ruin is especially strong here. Even very weak decks have a reasonable baseline chance.
• Nitemare: your deck matters less here than in any other duel. You draw fewer cards and Nitemare can kill you quickly with BEUD. Making a 3300 helps more than against Heishin, but making a 3800 helps less.

The methodology and formulas were developed by Exarion over approximately 18 months, using data from hundreds of trial duels against the Final 6. This web tool is an independent reimplementation that makes the same logic interactive and shareable via URL.